Can Democrats take back the House in 2018?
Trump has to be stopped, for the sake of our democracy. But the Democratic Party has virtually no institutional power, having been decimated during the midterms of 2010 and 2014. What little power remains is with the filibuster in the Senate, which will be removed should it prove effective.
When the Republicans won control of state governments around the country in 2010, they used them to gerrymander their districts, making it very difficult to beat them even when a substantial majority votes for the Democrat. Supposedly, Democrats would have to win the nationwide popular vote by over 7% just to win a bare majority in the House (a majority very hard to defend). Additionally, Democratic voters have a well-known habit of not showing up on midterm elections. And so, to win a majority, there must be a massive wave election to sweep out the GOP, big enough to turn at least 24 seats over. Can it be done?
Nate Silver thinks so.
Donald Trump is unpopular. More unpopular now (40% approval rating) than Obama was during the 2010 and 2014 elections (45% approval rating). If he remains this unpopular then, going by previous trends, that should net Democrats 40 seats – with a huge 33 seat margin of error.
I think he is likely to remain at least this unpopular, given that he has always had a very high disapproval rating and was the most unpopular person to ever win the presidency. I'm not sure he could go much lower, though. His support is pretty baked in; after all, if someone still supports Trump now after all that has happened and all that we know about him, what could possibly change their minds?
Perhaps only justifying sex with young boys.